PolitiFact: Lightning strikes still make a better comparison than alligator attacks

If you're tempted to illustrate the rarity of something by comparing it to something from real life, PolitiFact has a message for you: Take lightning strikes over alligator attacks.

On the issue of voter fraud, PolitiFact has given a number of "True" ratings to persons saying lightning strikes outnumber cases (that's cases considered for prosecution, mind you, not "cases" in the sense of "instances") of in-person voter impersonation.

PolitiFact's comparison is rigged by its narrow count of "cases," of course, but that's another story.

PolitiFact Wisconsin recycled the fact check with an April 7, 2016 item. The item offers no hint of criticism of the comparison of voter fraud to lightning strikes.

PolitiFact Wisconsin's "True" rating perpetuates the inconsistency we noted from a PolitiFact Florida fact check from 2015. It was claimed alligator attacks are more likely than a criminal attack by a Floridian with a concealed-carry gun permit. PolitiFact found the evidence broadly supported the claim but ruled it "Mostly False" since comparing alligator attacks to attacks with a firearm doesn't make sense:

(T)hese statistics, imperfect as they are, do support the notion that both kinds of attacks are uncommon. Whether this is a valid argument in favor of the bill is in the eye of the beholder. We find the statement has an element of truth but ignores other information that would give a different impression. So we rate it Mostly False.

There's an item a Zebra Fact Check criticizing PolitiFact Florida's ruling in detail.

It's worth noting that PolitiFact Wisconsin's evidence on voter fraud shared essentially the same weakness (no dependable count creating doubt):

It’s fair to say, however, that impersonation cases can be hard to count in that they are hard to prove -- particularly when no photo ID requirement is in place and a voter can cast a ballot simply by stating the name of a registered voter.

So the number of cases of in-person fraud by impersonation may be higher than that cited by Levitt, but no independent source suggests it is higher than the number of lightning strikes.

(...)

We rate Pocan’s statement True.

In both cases, then, PolitiFact doesn't really have the facts to fit the claim. But the liberal gets a "True" and the conservative gets a "Mostly False."

In other words, PolitiFact is objective and nonpartisan. Or something.

And if something happens rarely, compare it to lighting strikes instead of alligator attacks. Your PolitiFact report card may suffer otherwise.

Sharks & Alligators

I spent time at Zebra Fact Check last week dissecting PolitiFact Florida's effort to fact check whether the first 10 years of Florida's concealed-carry gun law produced twice as many alligator attacks as attacks by concealed-carry permit holders.

One aspect of that study deserves special attention here at PolitiFact Bias.

PolitiFact Florida couldn't find the information it needed to check the alligator claim. But it found a couple of experts who thought it was silly to compare gun attacks to alligator attacks, and the supposed silliness of the comparison found its way into the "Mostly False" rating. Health News Florida reviewed the rating with PolitiFact's Amy Hollyfield:

Since there's no source of comprehensive data for attacks by gun license holders, experts told PolitiFact Florida that it’s not very meaningful to compare alligator bites to the misuse of firearms.

“One of them told us it’s more than silly to compare bites to bullets,” Hollyfield said.

We couldn't avoid thinking about PolitiFact Florida's 2012 fact check of whether shark attacks outnumber cases of voter fraud. PolitiFact chose the measure: "cases" considered for prosecution by the state of Florida instead of "cases" as individual instances of fraud.

PolitiFact Florida admitted its measure was imperfect:

While the shark attack figures are cut and dry (sorry!), the voter fraud numbers are not. There could be more cases than we know about, involving more people. The numbers may not represent total voter fraud cases, as those could be handled by local supervisors and state attorneys.

Without considering the silliness of comparing voter fraud to shark attack and undeterred by the lack of good data on voter fraud, PolitiFact Florida ruled it "Mostly True" that shark attacks occur more frequently than voter fraud.

Obviously inconsistent? Yeah. Coincidentally, the point liberals like, that voter fraud occurs rarely, gets a pass. The claim conservatives like, that concealed-carry permit holders very rarely use their guns to attack others, gets the harsh rating.

That's PolitiFact.  That's bias.