Sunday, November 13, 2016

PolitiFact's "many" problems

On Nov. 3, 2016 we brought some focus to the "Mostly False" rating PolitiFact gave Donald Trump for saying many Americans were paying more for health care than for their mortgage or rent.

PFB co-editor Jeff D. today reminded me about an "Afters" section I added to a post from Sept. 1, 2016:
PolitiFact exaggerated the survey evidence supposedly supporting Clinton by claiming "many" teachers blamed Trump for increasing bullying and harassment:
Many of these teachers, unsolicited, cited Trump’s campaign rhetoric and the accompanying discourse as the likely reason for this behavior.
The Zebra Fact Check investigation suggests PolitiFact was misled about the number of teachers saying Trump was responsible for increasing bullying or harassment. Out of almost 2,000 teachers participating in the survey, 849 answered the question about bullying or biased language and of those 123 mentioned Trump. A fraction of those placed any kind of blame on Trump for anything. We would generously estimate that 25 teachers blamed Trump for something (not necessarily bullying or harassment) in answering that question. This implies that, to PolitiFact, "many" can be less than 1.25 percent of 2,000.
That's right. The hypocritical liberal bloggers at PolitiFact said "many" teachers cited Trump's rhetoric as the likely reason for bullying and/or harassing behavior. PolitiFact shoveled that to its readers as a fact, though the data showed a small fraction of the surveyed teachers offered that opinion. Then. about a month later, PolitiFact said Trump's statement about health care costs was "Mostly False."

Could PolitiFact be right in both cases?

That seems like a stretch.

Wrong in both cases?

That's more likely.


  1. Going with the numbers that were presented it seems like about 15% of the teachers who answer the survey mentioned Trump when talking about bullying that is significant

    1. In your opinion, what hypothesis would that "significant" figure support?

      Bear in mind the skewed sample the SPLC used.