PolitiFact's Jolly problem

PolitiFact hired David Jolly at some point in February, with the hire date depending on whether his job title was "reader representative" or "Republican guest columnist."

PolitiFact said the hire was intended to build trust in PolitiFact across party lines. We've viewed the experiment with justified skepticism. And Jolly's work so far as the "Republican guest columnist" only solidifies our skepticism.

Jolly's first guest column was published March 2, 2018. We noted that Jolly used that column to address a subject tied to his own advocacy of "common sense gun control." We doubted many PolitiSkeptical conservatives would hear their voices in that column. We judged that Jolly was using his position at PolitiFact to essentially write an op-ed about one of his pet political issues.

Jolly's March 7, 2018 column followed that pattern.

Instead of critiquing PolitiFact, Jolly used his column to attack the target of a PolitiFact fact check. The target of that fact check? President Donald Trump.

Jolly (bold emphasis added):

As the nation continues to debate which gun policies might provide for the safety of our schools and communities, PolitiFact demonstrated in a single column the critical importance fact-checkers serve in both informing the American public as well as holding politicians and advocates on both sides of the debate accountable for their assertions.

Jolly played his gun control theme song in the background again and again we ask: How does Jolly's approach to his columns build trust among conservatives skeptical of PolitiFact? Does he think that just having a Republican say something like "PolitiFact is right" will budge the needle of partisan mistrust?

We'll go out on a limb and predict that approach has a snowball's chance in hell of working.

Conservative mistrust in PolitiFact stems primarily from two factors:

• Conservatives see PolitiFact turning a blind eye to conservative arguments
• PolitiFact commonly makes errors of fact and logic damaging to conservatives

Jolly's column serves as an example of both problems, despite his willingness to identify as a Republican.

Jolly reinforces PolitiFact's left-leaning bias

Jolly lauded PolitiFact for rating "False" the claim that an armed civilian might have stopped the "Pulse" nightclub shooting in Orlando (bold emphasis added):

"You take Pulse nightclub," Trump said. "If you had one person in that room that could carry a gun and knew how to use it, it wouldn’t have happened, or certainly to the extent that it did."

The problem for both the president and his theory is that an armed officer and 15-year veteran of the Orlando Police Department, Adam Gruler, was actually working security at Pulse that fateful night, and indeed engaged the shooter directly with gunfire. Forty-nine people still lost their lives.

PolitiFact rightly rated as False the president's statement that an armed security guard could have saved those 49 victims.

The conservative would have read the PolitiFact fact check looking for evidence of fair treatment of the mainstream conservative point of view. That view is absent, and when Jolly fails to notice its absence and celebrates PolitiFact's fact check in spite of that, the conservative cannot take Jolly's columns any more seriously than the fact check in the first place.

The problem with the fact check

What's the problem with PolitiFact's fact check?

The fact check pretends that the armed guard working security in the Pulse parking lot counts as "one person in that room that could carry a gun and knew how to use it."

Is the Pulse parking lot inside the Pulse nightclub?

Shouldn't that make a difference for non-partisan fact checkers and GOP columnists alike?

Note PolitiFact's description of armed guard Anthony Gruler's involvement in the Pulse incident (bold emphasis added):

The Justice Department in 2017 released a nearly 200-page report detailing the Orlando police response to the shooting. Here’s the report’s account of Gruler’s initial confrontation with Mateen:

"Outside, in the Pulse parking lot, (Gruler), who was working extra duty at the club — to provide outside security and to provide assistance to security personnel inside the club if needed — heard the shots that were being fired; at 2:02:17 a.m., he broadcast over the radio, 'Shots fired, shots fired, shots fired,' and requested additional officers to respond.

"The detective told the assessment team that he immediately recognized that his Sig Sauer P226 9mm handgun was no match for the .223 caliber rifle being fired inside the club and moved to a position that afforded him more cover in the parking lot. Two patrons attempted to flee through an emergency exit on the south side of the club. When the detective saw the suspect shoot them, he fired at the suspect."

According to an Orlando Police Department report, additional officers arrived on the scene about a minute after Gruler’s call for backup was broadcast. A second backup officer arrived about a minute after that.

 PolitiFact's conclusion, sadly, serves as an adequate summary of its argument:

Talking about the Pulse nightclub shooting, Trump said, "If you had one person in that room that could carry a gun and knew how to use it, it wouldn’t have happened, or certainly to the extent that it did."

An armed, off-duty police officer in uniform was at the club during the shooting, and exchanged gunfire with the shooter, who managed to kill 49 people.

We rate this False.

Notice that PolitiFact says Gruler was "at the club," not "outside the club."

The "False" rating gets its premise from the fiction that Gruler was in the same room with Mateen while the latter was murdering club patrons. Jolly, PolitiFact's voice of the GOP, signs on with that falsehood.

In this case the deception comes from PolitiFact and Jolly. Not from Trump.

PolitiFact demonstrated nothing false in Trump's statement, yet pinned a "False" rating on his statement.

Jolly cheered PolitiFact's work, missing the key discrepancy in its fact check.

That's all kinds of wrong.

The first critique from PolitiFact's Republican "guest columnist" David Jolly (Updated)

In early February, PolitiFact tabbed two former Washington D.C. politicians as Democrat and Republican "guest columnists." PolitiFact said the hires were intended to raise its credibility across partisan lines.

We looked the the first column from the Democrat back on Feb. 12 and judged it pointless crap.

Republican David Jolly published his first critique on March 2, 2018. And though we were aware of charges Jolly counts as an "MSNBC Republican," we were still a bit surprised at first blush when Jolly used his column to apparently suggest PolitiFact had rendered a too-harsh judgment on a Democrat's claim about gun violence.

It's worth noting that Jolly has been busy lately promoting "common sense" gun control legislation, so maybe it was just too tempting to resist tying that political cause to his role at PolitiFact.

PolitiFact gave a gun violence statistic from Rep. Ted Deutch (D-Fla) a rating of "Mostly False." Jolly appeared to think Deutch deserved a better fate (bold emphasis added)

Rep. Deutch is said to have relied on statistics provided by The Century Foundation, a left-leaning think tank, which plainly assessed there had been "an increase of over 200%" in mass shootings since the expiration of the assault weapons ban. PolitiFact, however, rated Deutch’s statement Mostly False, largely on the basis that the commentary upon which the congressman relied was substantively challenged by other experts in the field. Presumably, had Deutch said in the town hall, "According to The Century Foundation, mass shootings went up 200% in the decade after the assault weapons ban expired," PolitiFact would have found the Congressman’s statement True on its face, while ruling the findings of The Century Foundation Mostly False.

Moreover, had PolitiFact evaluated Deutch’s statement simply on the numbers, there is ample evidence in the PolitiFact article to support a ruling of Mostly True.

Jolly's critique hits at PolitiFact's standard operating procedure. Yes, of course PolitiFact's ratings oversimplify complexities. Will writing a column pointing that out for the umpteenth time change anything?

Is that the extent of Jolly's point?  That's what his conclusion suggests:

In this case, a congressman’s statement seems to have been ruled Mostly False on two primary factors — his citing a credible think tank’s commentary on gun violence statistics, and a drawn inference by fact-checkers that may or may not have been intended in the congressman’s statement. Neither makes PolitiFact’s ruling right or wrong, but it reflects the enormous challenge faced by politicians, fact-checkers and ultimately voters in today’s political environment.

Newsflash for David Jolly: The fact checkers do not see the subjectivity of their ratings as a problem. The problem, in their eyes, is that readers do not place enough trust in fact checkers. And they recruited their "guest columnists" to help build bipartisan trust in their subjective judgments.

Jolly's critique is about as deep as Barbie's "Math is hard" critique of high school and as such works better as a soft-sell version of his gun control op-ed that we linked above. But we like it for the fact that its premise arguably strikes against the fundamental subjectivity of the PolitiFact approach.

Expect a short run for this PolitiFact experiment if Jolly's future work similarly attacks the PolitiFact premise.


Afters

We learned about Jolly's column through PolitiFact's Facebook page, where it featured a link to his column.

PolitiFact's main page at PolitiFact.com does a pretty awesome job of burying these columns. The reader would have to scroll near the bottom of the page and see the "Inside the Meters" section in the right sidebar.

It's literally the last element on the right sidebar, and there's no way to directly reach the "Inside the Meters" posts using the navigation buttons at the top of the PolitiFact website.

Afters 2

Unsurprisingly, PolitiFact uses an "even the Republican thinks we were too tough on the Democrat" frame in its Facebook announcement of his column:

Note:

See why he said "there is ample evidence ... to support a ruling of "Mostly True."

PolitiFact left out enough context of Jolly's column to earn its own "Half True" (bold emphasis added):

Moreover, had PolitiFact evaluated Deutch’s statement simply on the numbers, there is ample evidence in the PolitiFact article to support a ruling of Mostly True.

Sometimes PolitiFact judges simply on the numbers, sometimes it doesn't. No objective, nonpartisan principle appears to guide the decision.

We suggest PolitiFact's manipulation of Jolly's statement misleads its audience about Jolly's point. Jolly's overall point, albeit delivered weakly, was the difficulty of making the ratings (thanks to subjectivity). PolitiFact spins that into the Republican saying PolitiFact was too hard on the Democrat.

PolitiFact's spin helps stuff Jolly's column into a frame that assists PolitiFact's purpose of fluffing up its own credibility: They're so nonpartisan! They gave a Democrat a "Mostly False" when a Republican said he should have had a "Mostly True!!"

Afters 3

Exit question for David Jolly:

PolitiFact sees your role as a guest columnist as a way for it to help build its own credibility. It has said as much in public statements. Describe the difference between the way you see your role as a guest columnist and the way PolitiFact sees it.



Update: Jeff adds

Cherry-picking the source of a claim

One might assume PolitiFact's newest critic would know something about PolitiFact, until you read PolitiFact's newest critic's newest PolitiFact critique.

Jolly's gripe, and his solution to it, betray a gross ignorance of the way his employer works.

"PolitiFact would have found the Congressman’s statement True on its face, while ruling the findings of The Century Foundation Mostly False."

Jolly finds fault with PolitiFact giving the False rating to Rep. Deutch, when Deutch was simply repeating a claim made by a (Jolly's words) "credible think tank." He argues the rating should have gone to the think tank.

That's nice, but it's also a problem spelled out on these pages for nearly a decade. One of the ways  PolitiFact shows its liberal lean comes from its choice of the source for a claim. We've called that "attribution bias."

In 2011, when The New York Times, ABC, and NPR all repeated a bogus number published in an official Inspector General report regarding $16 muffins, PolitiFact added a "False" rating to conservative Bill O'Reilly's "report card." 

In 2012, when Time, CNN, and the New York Post published a faulty stat from a dubious research firm, it was conservative media group American Crossroads that earned the demerit on its PolitiFact scorecard.

More recently in 2017 PolitiFact ignored a widely publicized liberal talking point espoused by numerous talking heads in the national media for months, and then quickly jumped in to deem it "False" within a day of Donald Trump repeating it.

Though in Deutch's case PolitiFact gave the rating to a Democrat instead of the think tank responsible for the stat, it still exemplifies PolitiFact's subjective, cherry-picking process for assigning its ratings. That Jolly seems to think his observation is novel only highlights his own naivety about PolitiFact.

The critique overall?

 Jolly's overall critique comes off as compelling as warm beer. It's almost as if he quickly cobbled together the column immediately after being criticized for not producing a critique during the first month of PolitiFact's new "readers advocate" feature.

We're not sure what value Jolly adds to the operation here, unless being duped into being a real life version of PolitiFact's lame "we get it from both sides!" defense is his goal. He didn't provide any insight or commentary that hasn't been offered in a better form on this blog for the last several years. We think having an in-house, right-leaning critic at PolitiFact is a good idea and think it could improve its work immensely. So far it appears Jolly is not the vehicle for the improvement.

In any event, congratulations to Jolly for finding a way to get his first critique of PolitiFact from the right to dovetail so nicely with his conservative efforts to support ... gun control.

Guest columnist (Democrat) critiques PolitiFact

We covered PolitiFact's announcement it had hired Democratic and Republican "reader advocates" to help establish its trustworthiness. And we covered how PolitiFact unpublished that announcement when its choice of Alan Grayson, former Democratic congressman from Florida, blew up in its face.

Another announcement followed on Feb. 9, 2018, naming Republican David Jolly and Democrat Jason Altmire as "guest columnists."

The guest columns appear on PolitiFact's blog page, "Inside the Meters," which should prove sufficient to bury the columns outside the notice of anybody who doesn't either get Twitter or email alerts directly from PolitiFact.

Altmire was the first to have a critique published.

We think it's pointless crap.

Altmire says PolitiFact "generously" rated a Republican "Half True." Then later in the column says the "Half True" rating is the correct rating.

No, seriously. That's what Altmire does.

In the lead paragraph, Altimire says PolitiFact gave a "generous" Half True rating (bold emphasis added):

PolitiFact generously rates Congressman Mullin’s Facebook post "Half True." He got the numbers right, but failed to inform readers of the context. In evaluating claims involving the selective use of statistics, PolitiFact must consider whether the omission was accidental or meant to deceive. Mullin’s omission appears to have been purposeful, because he knows an evaluation of Obama’s entire economic record would present a completely different picture than the one the congressman was trying to paint. Is "Half True" an accurate rating in this case?

 And in his concluding paragraph, Altmire says PolitiFact got the rating right (bold emphasis added):

PolitiFact gave the correct rating; Mullin’s post was indeed "Half True." But from now on, when readers consider a statement that has been rated "Half True" based upon the misuse of statistics, I hope they will remember the less-than-complimentary implication of that rating.

("from now on"?????)

Altmire's point, cleverly disguised in the midst of his self-contradiction, was that Congressman Mullin was lying, and Altmire wishes PolitiFact had been more clear about it.

As critiques go, that's plenty lame. Media Matters could have come up with that one with no problem.

If these columnists don't pick up their game immediately, PolitiFact ought to waste no time at all pulling the plug on this experiment.