Showing posts with label Steven Goddard. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Steven Goddard. Show all posts

Thursday, July 3, 2014

The Doocy-Goddard update

On June 30 we posted about a PunditFact fact check that drew a response from Steven Goddard, the pseudonymous climate science blogger who runs "Real Science."  Goddard pointed out a number of problems with PunditFact's fact check.  We considered it unlikely PunditFact would revisit the issue.

We were only half right.

PunditFact did not change its original article, as we expected.  Instead, it added an article ("After the Fact") underneath the original article under the title "The man behind the science Fox quoted responds."  The article links to Goddard's response but does not quote from it at all.  Goddard lambasted the original fact check pretty thoroughly, but PunditFact just teased out one of the criticisms via paraphrase:
He noted that one of the experts we quoted in our initial piece has since revised his views of Heller’s research.
It's true Goddard (Heller) pointed out statement of reversal from Anthony Watt, the expert in question.  But that was the least of Goddard's criticisms.  It was the least of Goddard's criticisms because PunditFact quoted Watt on a different subject than the one it was fact checking.  Yet PunditFact gives its "After the Fact" update without addressing or even explicitly acknowledging Goddard's other criticisms.  There's no admission that PunditFact conflated two different issues in its fact check.

PolitiFact's response represents a pretense that there was nothing wrong with its original article.

Goddard made his central point the fact that the raw temperature data make the 1930s the hottest decade.  Fox's Steve Doocy turned that fact into a compound claim, attaching the adjustments to the data into a willful deception.  In terms of logic, there's some foundation for rating Doocy's entire compound statement as one claim--but that's not the usual practice we see from PolitiFact/PunditFact.  As PolitiFact says in its statement of principles:
Statements can be right and wrong – We sometimes rate compound statements that contain two or more factual assertions. In these cases, we rate the overall accuracy after looking at the individual pieces.
Or not. It depends on what PolitiFact feels like doing on any given day.

Consistent with PunditFact's principles, Doocy is more correct than not that the raw data need an adjustment to make 1998 hotter than peak temperatures from the 1930s.  And after that PunditFact might have considered what it would take to fact check whether the adjustments were done to intentionally overstate global warming.

PunditFact's response to Goddard lacks the needed correction. Nor does it do much to clarify the misleading aspects of the original fact check.


Addendum:

We've run across another PolitiFact story that helps illustrate how PolitiFact treated Doocy's claim unfairly compared to the alternative practice PolitiFact applies for compound statements.  Look for a story on that later this week. That post can be found here.


Edit 7/5/2014: Added links to PFB posts in first and last sentences and one link to original PolitiFact article- Jeff

Monday, June 30, 2014

Real Science: 'My Rebuttal to PolitiFact'

A climate science blogger who writes under the pseudonym Steven Goddard, sent out a blistering response to last week's PunditFact piece on Fox News Channel show host Stephen Doocy.

Goddard made public the email he sent to PolitiFact writer Jon Greenberg.  Here's the first part:
Politifact accused Steve Doocy of being a liar,  for accurately reporting on a blog post made on my blog (stevengoddard.wordpress.com) which showed how NASA has altered the US temperature record over time.

Politifact’s claim is the result of a failure to understand the topic, for the following reasons.
Sour grapes, right?

Not so fast.  It appears PunditFact conflated two different issues, and one of the persons quoted going against Goddard's conclusions, Anthony Watts, has since reversed himself.  Plus the basic criticism, that NASA has adjusted the temperature record, isn't contested despite the "Pants on Fire" rating.  Read Goddard's letter for the details.

Clearly, it's appropriate for PunditFact to revisit the issue and amend its fact check.  The question is whether PunditFact will bother.

Place us firmly in the skeptics' camp on that one.


Jeff Adds:

It's worth noting Watt's reversal was unequivocal (emphasis in original):
All of that added up to a big heap of confirmation bias, I was so used to Goddard being wrong, I expected it again, but this time Steve Goddard was right and my confirmation bias prevented me from seeing that there was in fact a real issue in the data and that NCDC has dead stations that are reporting data that isn’t real: mea culpa.
It's dishonest for PolitiFact to present Watt's original position without updating their story to reflect his further investigation into the matter. It would be reasonable to expect an update from an outfit that claims to help you "sort out the truth" of an issue. But PolitiFact appears to have less interest in uncovering the truth than they do in advancing an agenda.

Update July 3, 2014
PunditFact responds, sort of, and we clear away PolitiFact's smoke.


Clarification 4:02 a.m. EDT, July 1, 2014:  Substituted "an update" for "that" in the last paragraph.