Before we move on to the PoF bias in 2026, we'll mark down the cumulative totals since 2007 and for just the past 10 years. Note that the PoF Bias trends higher over the past 10 years, 2.24 compared to 1.35 over the full history.
The "selection bias" number likewise increases over the past 10 years, measuring 3.95 compared to 2.81 overall. Remember, when we hedge for our own bias in the data it underplays the degree of bias but at the cost of overplaying the "selection bias" number.
We put "selection bias" inside scare quotes because we don't really know exactly what causes the disparity. It could be selection bias, fact checker bias (ideological) or maybe Republicans just lie more and rightly get fact-checked as a result.
Of course we have dozens of examples of biased ratings, so that evidence points toward the first two explanations more than the third explanation.
Next year when the 10-year frame shifts, the Democratic Party will lose out on 13 "Pants on Fire" ratings, so we're anticipating that the 10-year totals 2016-2025 will contrast even more sharply with the cumulative totals. So far in 2026 it looks like the trends continue: lower raw numbers for the GOP and the Democrats, with the Democrats getting ever closer to disappearing from the data. After three full months of 2026 the Democrats have avoided "Pants on Fire" and "False" ratings. In 2026 the Democrats had two "False" ratings heading into July before a late-season flurry rocketed them up to a grand total of six for the year. Their previous low for one year was 2007, PolitiFact's partial first year, when they registered nine. And five of those were "Pants on Fire" ratings!
Did Democrats change that much in 20 years?
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thanks to commenters who refuse to honor various requests from the blog administrators, all comments are now moderated. Pseudonymous commenters who do not choose distinctive pseudonyms will not be published, period. No "Anonymous." No "Unknown." Etc.